不确定因素下的综合运输网络容量可靠性分析-《郑州大学学报(工学版)》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Capacity Reliability of Comprehensive Transportation Networks under Uncertainties

Author(s):: Ma Genghua1; Du Muqing2; Zhang Xiaoli2; 1. School of Port Coast and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098; 2. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, Hohai University, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210098

Keywords:: comprehensive transportation networks; network capacity; reliability; uncertainties

摘要:: 交通运输系统中需求、供给及参与者行为的不确定性，导致了运输网络总体容量的不规律变化。综合运输网络是一个复杂的交通运输系统，忽略系统内部或外部的不确定因素，可能导致交通规划与管理决策的偏差。建立考虑不确定因素的综合运输网络流量分配模型，采用网络变换方法描述具有多方式的综合运输系统。相应地，提出了综合运输网络流量分配算法，进而计算综合运输网络的总体容量。结合蒙特卡洛实验，假定各运输弧段的运输能力随机变化，应用网络容量可靠性分析框架，对综合运输网络的容量可靠性问题开展分析实验。结合具体算例，演示了上述分析模型与方法的实现过程及有效性，为系统性地评价综合运输网络可靠性提供了有力的工具。

Abstract:: Because of the uncertainties of the travel demands, system supplies and travelers’ behaviors in transportation systems, the capacity of the comprehensive transportation networks is usually changing irregularly. The comprehensive transportation network is a complicated transport system. Ignoring the uncertain factors inside or outside of the system may causes mistakes when people make decisions in transportation planning and management. An assignment model for comprehensive transportation network is built, in order to compute the network capacity of the comprehensive transportation system. Utilizing the Monte-Carlo method, in which the capacity at each individual link is assumed to be changed randomly, the capacity reliability of the comprehensive transportation network is analyzed with numerical experiments. In the example, the effectiveness of the proposed model and solution method is demonstrated. Therefore, the proposed approach provides an efficient tool for evaluating the system reliability of the comprehensive transportation networks.