[1]葛巍,焦余铁,洪辛茜,等.基于AHP-BN法的溃坝生命损失风险评价[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2021,42(03):8.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2021.03.002]
　Ge Wei,Jiao Yu Tie,Hong Xinqian,et al.Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2021,42(03):8.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2021.03.002]
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基于AHP-BN法的溃坝生命损失风险评价()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
42
期数:
2021年03期
页码:
8
栏目:
出版日期:
2021-05-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method
作者:
葛巍;  焦余铁;  洪辛茜;  段志昌;  李宗坤;  高卫星
郑州大学水利科学与工程学院;代尔夫特理工大学技术政策和管理学院;云南大学国际河流与生态安全研究院;郑州大学政治与公共管理学院;
Author(s):
Ge Wei; Jiao Yu Tie; Hong Xinqian; Duan Zhichang; Li Zongkun; Gao Satellite;
School of Water Conservancy and Engineering, Zhengzhou University; School of Technical Policy and Management of Daerph University of Technology; Institute of International River and Ecological Security of Yunnan University; School of Political and Public Management of Zhengzhou University;
关键词:
Keywords:
dam breach;  life loss;  AHP-BN;  evaluation model;  risk assessment
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2021.03.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对影响溃坝生命损失因素多,而历史统计资料相对较少导致溃坝生命损失评价的准确性和实用性难以协同实现的问题,提出一种适用于对大量大坝生命损失进行评价的模型。选取溃坝洪水严重性程度、警报时间、溃坝发生时间、风险人口、溃坝理解程度、青壮年比例、建筑物质量、救援能力8个指标,构建溃坝生命损失指标体系按照相关标准和准则划分指标等级,运用 AHP-BN法综合考虑权重与概率影响,构建出溃坝生命损失评价模型。 将模型应用于3座已溃大坝实例,结果表明:李家咀、洞口庙和史家沟水库的评价风险值大小分别为 0.626、0.594 和 0.522,风险大小与实际生命损失情况一致,验证了模型的有效性,基于AHP-BN法的溃坝生命损失风险评价具有较好的理论意义和工程应用价值。
Abstract:
The accuracy and praclicability of life loss assessment can not be realized synergistically due to many factors affecting the life loss of dam break and relatively few historical statistics.A model suitable for the evaluation og life loss of dam brach is prosposd. Eight indexes,i.e.,severity of dam break flood,alarm time,occurrence time of dam break,risk population,understanding degree of dam break,proportion of young and middle-aged people,building quality and rescue capacity,are selected to build a dam break lif loss index system.The index grade is divided according to the relevant standards and criteria.AHP-BN method is used to comprehensively consider the influence of weight and probability,calculate the risk value of life loss,and build a dam break life loss assessment model.The application of the model to an example shows that risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the model to an example shows that the risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the order of Lijiazui Reservoir (0.626),Dongkoumiao Reservoir (0.594) and Shijiagou Reservoir (0.522).The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the validity and practical value in engineering of this model.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2021-06-24