[1]张 华,彭朝晖,张 强,等.基于 DBN 的艾尔西亚高等级公路施工进度风险评估[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2023,44(05):108-113.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015]
　ZHANG Hua,PENG Zhaohui,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(05):108-113.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015]
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基于 DBN 的艾尔西亚高等级公路施工进度风险评估()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
44
期数:
2023年05期
页码:
108-113
栏目:
出版日期:
2023-08-20

文章信息/Info

Title:
Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN
作者:
张 华1; 2 ;  彭朝晖3 ;  张 强3 ;  马萌濛3 ;  王亚伟3 ;  李宗坤1; 2
1. 郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001; 2. 郑州大学 黄河实验室,河南 郑州 450001; 3. 中国水利水电第 十一工程局有限公司,河南 郑州 450002
Author(s):
ZHANG Hua;  PENG Zhaohui;  ZHANG Qiang;  MA Mengmeng;  WANG Yawei;  LI Zongkun
关键词:
艾尔西亚高等级公路;  进度风险;  动态贝叶斯网络;  进度监测数据
Keywords:
El Sillar highway;  progress risk;  dynamic Bayesian network;  progress monitoring data
分类号:
TV698
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对传统贝叶斯网络(BN)方法较难实现施工进度风险动态评估的问题,在分析环境、组织、技术、管理等 风险因素与施工进度风险之间因果关系的基础上,引入时间因素将贝叶斯网络横向扩展成具有 10 个时间段的动 态贝叶斯网络(DBN) ,结合施工进度监测数据对施工进度风险进行动态评估。 以 El Sillar( 下文称艾尔西亚) 高等 级公路工程为例验证方法的合理性。 结果表明:艾尔西亚公路工程施工进度风险整体可控,各时间段能够按期完 工的概率在 60%左右,延期风险呈先增后降的趋势,导致其工期延误的风险事件依次为环境风险、技术风险、组织 管理风险、经济风险;DBN 模型考虑了风险因素的动态性,优于静态模型。 基于 DBN 对公路工程施工进度动态风 险进行分析,可为同类工程提供借鉴和参考
Abstract:
Traditional Bayesian network (BN)method was difficult to ensure the dynamic assessment of construction progress risk, on the basis of analyzing the risk sources of construction progress lag, the time factor was introduced to horizontally expand the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with multiple time periods, and the construction progress risk was dynamically assessed in combination with the construction progress monitoring data. El Sillar highway project was taken as an example to verify the rationality of the method. The results showed that the construction progress risk of the El Sillar Highway Project was controllable as a whole, and the probability of completion in each period was about 60%. The risk of delay showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The main factor causing the delay of the construction period was the environmental risk, the DBN model could consider the dynamics of risk factors, so it was superior to the static model. The dynamic risk analysis of highway construction progress based on DBN could provide reference for similar projects.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2023-09-04